Do Ukrainian refugees want promising prospects on the labor market or higher social benefits? The answer is: good, well-paid work. This was the finding of a study conducted by the ifo Institute. A team surveyed more than 3,300 Ukrainians in Europe.
The prospect of finding a job that matches their qualifications and higher earnings were the top priorities when choosing a country of refuge. According to Panu Poutvaara, quoted in a press release, this has „a much stronger effect on refugees’ decision on which country to go to than social assistance and other government benefits.” He heads the ifo Center for Migration and Development Economics.
Choosing between two paths
Participants in the study could choose between two fictional countries with different conditions. If one country promised better job prospects, respondents were 15 percentage points more likely to choose it. Earnings also played a role. If the average wage in one country was €500 higher than elsewhere, respondents were 9 percentage points more likely to choose the country with higher earnings. This also applied to those who were currently unemployed.
Family more important than proximity to Ukraine
The location of friends and family is also important to respondents when choosing a country. Geographical proximity to Ukraine was less important, according to the researchers. They also asked about intentions to return to Ukraine and the consequences of doing so. The result: those who planned to „settle outside Ukraine in the long-term preferred countries further away with economic advantages over countries where family and friends are located.”
Government argues over citizen’s income
The CDU/CSU and SPD government in Berlin wants fewer refugees to come to Germany. That is why it has included worse conditions for Ukrainians in its coalition agreement. Anyone arriving in Germany after April 1, 2025, should receive less money – just like asylum seekers. CSU leader Markus Söder demanded that Ukrainians already living in Germany should no longer receive citizen’s income. This has been met with fierce criticism from many quarters.
Cuts will have „little effect”
According to researchers at the ifo Center for Migration and Development Economics, the plan to cut social benefits in order to make fleeing to certain countries less attractive will have „little effect,” according to Yvonne Giesing, deputy director of the ifo Center. In addition, cutting state aid could „also have a negative long-term impact on integration,” Giesing said.
Integration into work is progressing
In October 2024, around 1.25 million Ukrainians were living in Germany. In July 2025, more than 930,000 Ukrainians were of working age between 15 and 65, around 568,000 of whom were women. „The integration of people from Ukraine into the labor market is progressing,” wrote the Federal Employment Agency in February 2025. At that time, just under 300,000 Ukrainians were employed, more than 245,000 of whom were subject to social insurance contributions. There was „significant progress” in their integration into the labor market, it added. Despite a difficult economic environment, the integration rate had more than doubled and „thus developed very well compared to the overall average.”
Sources
See the ifo study: ifo | Press release Study Refugees from Ukraine
See Federal Employment Agency: Employment Agency | Nearly 300,000 people from Ukraine in work.
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