By Oula Mahfouz and Michael Seifert
Syrian refugees often report that their family members and friends who fled Turkey are increasingly returning to Syria. They say that in cities such as Bursa, entire streets where Syrians used to live and had set up businesses now appear depopulated and empty. There are also reports of this in the Arab media. According to these reports, the departure of Syrians has caused a considerable loss to Turkey’s economic life. The consequences cited include labor shortages, loss of infrastructure and retail offerings, and vacant housing. However, it is unclear how many Syrians have left Turkey, with widely varying figures circulating.
tuenews INTERNATIONAL therefore interviewed a Turkey specialist who also deals with the situation of Syrian refugees in Turkey: Dr. Franck Düvell. He is a senior researcher at the Institute for Migration Research and Intercultural Studies at the University of Osnabrück.
Reliable figures
Franck Düvell estimates that there were originally between 2.9 and 3.1 million Syrians, including children, in Turkey. The official Turkish figures do not exclude those who have moved on to Europe.
According to Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya, as of September 27, 2025, approximately 509,000 Syrians have returned since December 8, 2024. Since 2016, the number has reached 1.25 million people.
In 2019, Düvell and his colleagues conducted a survey on Syrians’ intentions to stay: “At that time, 50 percent said they wanted to stay in Turkey, 30 percent said they would return to Syria if conditions changed, and 20 percent wanted to continue on to the EU because they already had relatives there. But only a small proportion of them had the necessary means to do so.”
There are three decisive reasons for the decision to return or not: “Where do they see the best future for their children? Where do most of their relatives live? What is the security situation and the general conditions in Syria, and in particular in their place of origin? If the city is destroyed and their house is no longer standing, they would have to settle elsewhere and start all over again, whereas they have already been integrated in Turkey for 10 years,” the expert continues.
Change in attitude towards Syrians
Düvell considers the impact that the mass return of Syrians is expected to have on Turkey to be “exaggerated” in media reports. He justifies this by pointing out that after 2010 there was an economic upswing with large construction projects and new industrial sectors as Turkey’s economic success grew: “This led to many workers moving up from the low-wage sector, creating a labor shortage in the textile and leather industries, agriculture, and the service sector. The Syrians who fled to Turkey after the outbreak of war filled this gap and brought in “fresh blood”, so to speak.”
However, Turkey is now in the midst of a severe economic crisis with high inflation and job losses, which is pushing Turkish workers back into the low-wage sector. Düvell explains the consequences: “But now the Syrians are there, and that has completely changed the mood towards these refugees. Whereas initially people wanted to help their “Muslim sisters and brothers” in what was seen as a temporary situation of need, when they did not return, they were met with silent rejection at first, which then became loud and aggressive, even racist.”
Incidentally, according to an international study, xenophobia in Turkey is among the highest in the world when it comes to settling, employment, and starting a business, i.e., once you leave the realm of hospitality. Düvell summarizes: “Overall, therefore, the problem of the impending labor shortage seems to me to be artificial, especially given that efforts are underway to increase the very low rate of female employment in Turkey and make better use of this high potential.”
Opportunities for the Turkish economy through the reconstruction of Syria
Düvell considers the closure of Syrian businesses in Turkey to be a marginal problem for the Turkish economy as a whole due to low sales. On the contrary, he sees the reconstruction of Syria as a great opportunity for the Turkish economy, because “this will have to be done largely from Turkey and with Turkey’s help. For example, when it comes to the delivery of building materials, food, medicine, and even school supplies. This will be an important potential for economic growth in the provinces close to Syria for Turkey.” Syrians in Turkey would of course also be involved in this trade, because they are the important discussion partners.
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