The willingness of Ukrainian refugees to return depends primarily on security and political stability. Without additional conditions, only around 3 percent would return. With security guarantees and political reforms, the willingness to return rises to almost 50 percent. This is according to a statement from the ifo Institute. The data is based on a survey of 2,543 Ukrainian refugees in 30 European countries.
Most important conditions for return
The strongest factors are reasons such as the restoration of the 1991 borders (+10.8 percentage points), security guarantees through NATO membership (+7.1 percentage points), and the partial liberation of occupied territories (+6.8 percent). Economic factors are also relevant, but to a lesser extent: better prospects on the labor market (+4.1 percentage points), the prospect of EU accession, and less corruption (around +3 percentage points each).
How willingness is changing
If security guarantees and political reforms are achieved together (such as the prospect of EU accession and institutional reforms), the willingness to return rises to almost 50 percent. Even without a complete withdrawal of the Russian occupiers, real security guarantees and progress in reforms can motivate around 30 percent of those surveyed to return.
Why the answers are important
The extent of the return will influence Ukraine’s demographics and economy after the war. According to the ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, the future security architecture and political reforms will be the main factors determining whether millions of Ukrainians will return.
See: ifo-Institut – Rückkehr ukrainischer Flüchtlinge
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