Russia’s war of aggression has significantly accelerated the population decline in Ukraine. According to data from the Federal Agency for Civic Education (bpb), the population fell from 42 million in January 2022 to 37.6 million on January 1, 2023. The figures refer to the territory within the 1991 borders. Looking only at the territory controlled by the Ukrainian government, the figure was 32.6 million.
Women and children flee
A major reason for this development is the flight abroad. According to the bpb, more than 6 million people have left Ukraine since the invasion began, mainly women and children. Figures from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) show how significantly this shift is changing the population structure: from January 2022 to June 2023, around one million people emigrated from Ukraine to Germany. 61 percent of them were women, 40 percent single parents and their children. According to the bpb, the population has been declining since 1991: from 51.9 million to 42 million in January 2022, because many Ukrainians emigrated.
Few births, many deaths
The war is not only affecting migration, but also directly impacting births and deaths. According to estimates by the Federal Agency for Civic Education, the birth rate plummeted after February 24, 2022, while mortality rose across all age groups. The author of the Ukraine Analysis assumes that the total fertility rate in 2022 and even more so in 2023 was below 0.9 children per woman—which would be the lowest rate in Europe. According to data based on registers of the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice and published by Opendatabot, there were almost three deaths for every birth in Ukraine in 2024. Life expectancy declined dramatically: according to bpb, it fell from 65 years (2021) to 57 years in 2023 for men. For women, it fell from 73 to 69 years over the same period.
Consequences long-lasting
Some of these losses could be permanent. According to the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF), 59 percent of Ukrainian refugees who arrived earlier and 69 percent of those who arrived later want to stay in Germany in the long term. According to the BAMF, plans to return home depend primarily on the end of the war and the economic situation in Ukraine. At the same time, the Federal Agency for Civic Education warns that even in a comparatively favorable scenario, Ukraine’s population could fall to 31 million by 2035.
Further informations:
https://www.bpb.de/themen/europa/ukraine-analysen/nr-300/549632/analyse-die-demografische-krise-in-der-ukraine-ursachen-auswirkungen-und-zukunftsperspektiven/
https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2023/12/PD23_476_12.html
https://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/DE/2025/250303-forschungsbericht-ukrainische-gefluechtete.html
https://opendatabot.ua/en/analytics/birth-death-2024-6
By Yana Rudenko
tun26030304